USDA ERS – International Markets and Commerce

(Chosen analysis findings from FY 22)

Cover image of Do Free Trade Agreements Benefit Developing Countries? An Examination of U.S. AgreementsU.S. free commerce settlement companions (besides Australia) confirmed annual will increase in agricultural exports to the US within the 5 years following the institution of their respective commerce agreements 

This report makes use of pattern evaluation to see whether or not actions in commerce, manufacturing, and Gross Home Product (GDP) information are in line with the idea that free commerce agreements (FTAs) produce useful results for growing nations—specializing in FTAs between growing nations and the US. As nations specialize within the manufacturing of products for which they keep a comparative benefit relative to member FTA nations, particular commodities usually see the most important modifications in commerce. This discovering is very true for growing nations in Central and South America.


Cover image of China's Import Potential for Beef, Corn, Pork, and WheatChinese language home costs constantly exceeded import costs for 4 key commodities

China is likely one of the prime importers of agricultural merchandise, nevertheless it has nontariff measures that stop its imports from rising even bigger. On this report, ERS researchers examined differentials between home and import costs to evaluate the presence of commerce boundaries or frictions that will stop imports from reaching their potential. The 4 key commodities examined have been beef, corn, pork, and wheat. China’s beef costs have been about 80–90 p.c greater than U.S. imported beef costs in 2020 regardless of fast progress in imports. ERS additionally examined two eventualities by which eradicating commerce boundaries might result in a rise in China’s imports.


Cover image Chinese Cotton: Textiles, Imports, and XinjiangChina’s imports of cotton are projected to step by step improve over the following decade, however China’s dominant place within the cotton market seems to be weakening, with U.S. cotton exports shifting to different Asian nations

China is the world’s largest textile producer and cotton shopper, however modifications in China’s financial system are reshaping the geography of its cotton-textile sector. This report critiques financial elements and insurance policies that led to the geographic separation of China’s cotton manufacturing from its textile trade and the impacts on China’s imported and home cotton. Practically all of China’s cotton is produced within the nation’s Xinjiang Area, whereas textile producers, the principle shoppers of cotton, are concentrated in coastal and central areas the place cotton manufacturing has fallen dramatically. China’s position as a cotton importer seems to have peaked, whereas different nations are growing their share of imports. USDA baseline projections recommend that by 2030 Vietnam, Pakistan, Indonesia, Bangladesh, and Turkey will collectively account for 47 p.c of the world’s cotton imports whereas China will solely account for twenty-four p.c.


Cover Image of The Economic Impacts of Retaliatory Tariffs on U.S. AgricultureDirect U.S. agricultural export losses as a consequence of retaliatory tariffs totaled greater than $27 billion throughout 2018 via the top of 2019

In 2018, the US imposed Part 232 tariffs on metal and aluminum imports from main buying and selling companions and individually Part 301 tariffs on a broad vary of imports from China. In response to those actions, six buying and selling companions—Canada, China, the European Union, India, Mexico, and Turkey—responded with retaliatory tariffs on a variety of U.S. agricultural exports, together with agricultural and meals merchandise. Throughout retaliatory companions, China accounted for about 95 p.c of the losses ($25.7 billion), adopted by the EU ($0.6 billion), and Mexico ($0.5 billion), with Canada, Turkey, and India having smaller shares. ERS estimated annualized losses for chosen commodities from retaliatory tariffs have been $13.2 billion from mid-2018 to the top of 2019.


Image of COVID-19 virusU.S. agricultural exports to Mexico declined in April 2020 and didn’t recuperate till November 2020

This COVID-19 Working Paper makes use of detailed commerce statistics to discover how and why U.S.-Mexico agricultural commerce modified throughout 2020, the primary yr of the COVID-19 pandemic. Beef and veal, cotton, and pork have been the U.S. agricultural exports to Mexico with the most important decreases in export worth between calendar years 2019 and 2020. The agricultural imports from Mexico with the most important will increase in import worth have been tequila, recent tomatoes, and beer. The financial downturn and shift away from meals expenditures at motels, eating places, and institutional institutions due to the pandemic clarify a few of these modifications.


Cover image of U.S. Agricultural Exports to Colombia: Rising Sales in Response to Trade Liberalization and Changing Consumer TrendsAdjustments in Colombian shopper demand have created new alternatives for international and home agricultural suppliers

This report examined the ten main U.S. agricultural exports to Colombia by way of worth, along with 5 different U.S. agricultural exports to Colombia which have considerably elevated for the reason that implementation of the U.S.-Colombia Commerce Promotion Settlement (TPA) in Could 2012. Meals is likely one of the largest classes of family expenditures in Colombia. The mixed impact of expanded buying energy, a bigger center class, and shoppers keen to attempt new meals generated many modifications within the Colombian eating regimen from 2009 to the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. On common, Colombians have been consuming extra rooster and pork and had elevated their expenditures on meals away from residence, comfort meals, and recent meals—most notably fish and seafood, meat, and greens.


Image of COVID-19 virusSub-Saharan Africa rice consumption declined by 4.3 p.c from the pre-pandemic projection—which led to a 1.2 p.c drop in imports in 2020

This COVID-19 Working Paper illuminates the impression that volatility in worldwide commodity costs has on U.S. agricultural product export volumes to sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). The COVID-19 pandemic has created a interval of intense value volatility, providing a singular alternative for modeling potential results of a worldwide shock on commerce with these nations. This evaluation revealed declines in total commerce and consumption stemming from the financial shock throughout every SSA mannequin. These outcomes aligned with expectations by which the pandemic led to a decline—by various levels— throughout all commodities and indicators in every mode.

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